EbonFX Market Insights — Treasury Desk
Decision released 2:30pm AEST; press conference 3:30pm AEST
| Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Cash Rate | 4.60% | 4.60% | 4.35% |
RBA Decision
Earlier today, the RBA confirmed its fourth rate hike of 2026, increasing the official cash rate by 0.25% (from 4.35% to 4.60%) while maintaining a hawkish tone in its accompanying statement.
This decision solidifies Australia’s position as the country with the highest policy interest rate in the G10. Although the hike was largely priced in by financial markets, the AUD initially spiked on the news before retracing to its pre-announcement levels.
USD
The US dollar stayed broadly bid through the session, with elevated oil prices tied to the widening Middle East conflict keeping inflation concerns front of mind and reinforcing bets that the Fed still has room for further tightening of its own. That backdrop capped how far AUD/USD could run on today’s RBA decision, even as the local currency found support. Next catalyst is the run of US data and Fed speakers into next week.
AUD
A$ had a range of 0.7004/0.7110 over the past week, extending the slide from the 0.7225 five-week high struck in early September as broad US dollar strength — driven by the same oil and inflation dynamics — kept pressure on the pair. Today’s RBA decision offered some relief: the Board delivered its fourth hike of the year, taking the cash rate to its highest level since 2011, exactly as expected, and kept the door open to further increases given the broadening Middle East conflict, AI-driven demand lifting technology goods prices, and ongoing domestic capacity pressures. AUD/USD bounced toward 0.7050 on the decision, though the same Dollar strength weighing on the pair all week is capping the extent of the recovery.
What to watch next
The next confirmed high-impact release is Australia’s monthly CPI (m/m, y/y, and Trimmed Mean) tomorrow, Wednesday 30 September at 11:30am AEST — the first inflation read since today’s hike.
This note is general market commentary, not financial advice, and doesn’t take into account your individual circumstances.
AUD/USD daily close, Aug 25 – Sep 28, 2026. Source: ECB daily reference rate (frankfurter.dev).