EbonFX Market Insights — Treasury Desk
Released 28 October, 11:30am AEDT — updated just after the announcement
| Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI m/m | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| CPI y/y | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% |
| Trimmed Mean CPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
What just happened
Australia’s latest inflation figures have just been released, and prices over the past year are up 4.3% – higher than the 4.2% economists were expecting, and up from 4.0% the month before. Prices also rose 0.8% over the month, ahead of the 0.7% forecast. The figure that matters most to the RBA, the trimmed mean (a measure of everyday price growth that ignores unusually big one-off moves), came in right in line with forecasts, which softens the surprise a little.
Why it matters
Inflation is the main thing the Reserve Bank watches when deciding whether to raise, hold or cut interest rates. The RBA meets again on 3 November, and markets were already weighing up another rise. A hotter headline number adds to that pressure, while the in-line underlying figure suggests the picture isn’t worsening everywhere.
What the Australian dollar is doing
The Aussie jumped 15 points upon data release and has subsequently come back to trading at levels prior to the release of CPI.
RBNZ rate statement
| Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBNZ Official Cash Rate | 2.75% | 3.00% | 2.75% |
Across the Tasman, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has surprised markets by holding its official cash rate steady, when a rise was widely expected. The decision was close, with the committee split 4–3 and three members voting for an increase. The bank also signalled that tighter policy is still likely, but pointed to softer inflation, subdued wages and fragile growth as reasons to wait.
The New Zealand dollar fell sharply on the news, dropping to below 0.5600 against the US dollar. That leaves the Kiwi weaker against the Australian dollar too, and puts the contrast between the RBA’s more hawkish tone and the RBNZ’s pause squarely in focus.
What’s coming up
Attention now turns to the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision early tomorrow morning (5:00am AEDT, Thursday), followed by the RBA’s meeting on Tuesday 3 November.
This note is general market commentary, not financial advice, and doesn’t take into account your individual circumstances.
AUD/USD daily close, October 2026 (month to date, to Oct 27). Source: ECB daily reference rate (frankfurter.dev).