EbonFX Market Insights — Treasury Desk
Released Tuesday 3 November – 2:30pm AEDT (press conference 3:30pm AEDT)
| Event | Previous | Expected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Cash Rate decision | 4.60% | 4.85% | 4.85% |
| Board vote (raise : hold) | – | Majority to raise | 6 : 3 |
What happened
At 2:30pm AEDT today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.85%, as markets and all four major banks had expected. It was the fifth rise of 2026 and took the cash rate to its highest level since late 2008. The vote was split: six members voted to raise rates and three voted to leave them unchanged at 4.60%.
Why it matters
The rise was driven by inflation, which reached 4.3% in September and has been running hotter than the RBA expected. Higher rates flow through to borrowing costs for businesses and households. The three votes to hold show the Board was not fully aligned, which points to a closer call than the headline suggests and keeps attention on whether this is the last rise of the cycle or whether more could follow.
| Recent Australian data | Previous | Expected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI inflation (y/y), September | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| Producer prices, PPI (q/q) | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
What the Australian dollar did
The Aussie has traded lower following the decision.
What’s coming up
Attention now turns to the Governor’s press conference at 3:30pm AEDT, then to the week ahead. Most major banks expect the RBA to pause after November, though some have flagged a risk of another rise in February. Tomorrow brings New Zealand employment figures, Australian household spending and euro-zone inflation, plus the US midterm elections. Later in the week, the Bank of England announces its rate decision on Thursday night, and US jobs figures follow early on Saturday morning AEDT. US inflation data on Wednesday 11 November is the next major release after that. A result that differs from what is expected can move the US dollar, the pound or the euro, and the Australian dollar can get caught in the move.
| Upcoming release | Date & time | Previous | Expected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZ Employment Change (q/q) | Wed 4 Nov, 8:45am AEDT | 0.5% | 0.4% | – |
| NZ Unemployment Rate | Wed 4 Nov, 8:45am AEDT | 5.6% | 5.5% | – |
| Australia Household Spending (m/m) | Wed 4 Nov, 11:30am AEDT | 0.0% | 0.2% | – |
| Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate (y/y) | Wed 4 Nov, 9:00pm AEDT | 3.8% | 4.0% | – |
| US ISM Services PMI | Thu 5 Nov, 2:00am AEDT | 54.9 | 54.8 | – |
| Australia Goods Trade Balance | Thu 5 Nov, 11:30am AEDT | 0.50B | 0.94B | – |
| Bank of England Official Bank Rate | Thu 5 Nov, 11:00pm AEDT | 3.75% | 4.00% | – |
| US Non-Farm Employment Change | Sat 7 Nov, 12:30am AEDT | 29K | 65K | – |
| US Unemployment Rate | Sat 7 Nov, 12:30am AEDT | 4.2% | 4.2% | – |
| US CPI (y/y) | Wed 11 Nov, 12:30am AEDT | 3.7% | – | – |
Actual figures are added as each result is released. Expected figures reflect bank forecasts and market pricing, not an official RBA forecast.
This note is general market commentary, not financial advice, and doesn’t take into account your individual circumstances.
AUD/USD daily close, 1 October to 2 November 2026. Source: ECB daily reference rate (frankfurter.dev).