EbonFX Market Insights — Treasury Desk
Released 11 November – [TIME] AEDT (US data released 11 November – 12:30am AEDT)
| Event | Previous | Expected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Core CPI inflation (m/m) | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| US CPI inflation (m/m) | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
What just happened
US core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices and is the number the Federal Reserve watches most closely, rose 0.3% over the month. That was a little faster than the 0.2% economists expected, and the same pace as the month before. Headline inflation, which includes food and energy, rose 0.4%, above the 0.3% forecast but well below the 0.6% jump in the previous month.
Why it matters
Core inflation is the Fed’s preferred guide to underlying price pressure, so a result above forecast makes it harder for the Fed to ease up. The Fed held interest rates at its last meeting while leaving the door open to another rise, and today’s figures keep that possibility in play. Higher US rates tend to support the US dollar, so inflation data like this is a key driver of currency moves.
What the Australian dollar is doing
The Aussie traded lower leading into the release, then fell sharply when the figures were published, dropping to its lowest level since March. It has since recovered slightly, up 20 points from the overnight low.
What’s coming up
Next up is UK growth data on Thursday evening, followed by US producer prices early on Saturday morning AEDT, which show whether price pressure is building at the business level. Closer to home, Australian inflation data on Wednesday 25 November is the next major local release and will be closely watched after the RBA’s rise to 4.85%.
| Upcoming release | Date & time | Previous | Expected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK GDP (m/m) | Thu 12 Nov, 6:00pm AEDT | 0.1% | – | – |
| US PPI (m/m) | Sat 14 Nov, 12:30am AEDT | 1.3% | – | – |
| US Core PPI (m/m) | Sat 14 Nov, 12:30am AEDT | 0.7% | – | – |
| Canada CPI (m/m) | Tue 17 Nov, 12:30am AEDT | – | – | – |
| Australia CPI (y/y) | Wed 25 Nov, 11:30am AEDT | 4.3% | – | – |
Actual figures are added as each result is released. Expected figures are added once forecasts are published.
This note is general market commentary, not financial advice, and doesn’t take into account your individual circumstances.
AUD/USD daily close, November 2026 (month to date, to Nov 10). Source: ECB daily reference rate (frankfurter.dev).