EbonFX Market Insights — Treasury Desk
Released 29 October – 5:00am AEDT
| Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Funds Rate (upper limit) | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% |
What just happened
The US Federal Reserve has just announced it is leaving interest rates unchanged, with the target range staying at 3.75–4.00%. That is what markets expected. The surprise was in the vote: two of the twelve voting members wanted to raise rates again, while ten voted to hold. The Fed’s statement says inflation remains elevated, and Chair Kevin Warsh described the pause as a chance to see how September’s rate rise is working through the economy.
Why it matters
The Fed’s rate is the most influential interest rate in the world, so its decisions ripple through currencies, borrowing costs and share markets everywhere. With two members already voting for a rise, and no promises from Warsh either way about the December meeting, markets are still leaning toward another increase before the end of the year.
What the Australian dollar is doing
The Aussie dollar is holding firm. Contact +61 2 7255 9988 to get the latest market rate.
What’s coming up
Tonight at 11:30pm AEDT, the US releases its latest growth figures and its preferred inflation measure, Core PCE. Both could shift expectations for December. Just after midnight (12:15am AEDT, Friday) the European Central Bank announces its interest rate decision, followed by the RBA on Tuesday 3 November.
This note is general market commentary, not financial advice, and doesn’t take into account your individual circumstances.
AUD/USD daily close, October 2026 (month to date, to Oct 28). Source: ECB daily reference rate (frankfurter.dev).