EbonFX Market Insights — Treasury Desk
Released 30 October – 11:30am AEDT (US data 29 October – 11:30pm AEDT; ECB 30 October – 12:15am AEDT)
| Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Advance GDP (q/q) | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% |
| US Core PCE inflation (m/m) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| US Unemployment Claims | 194K | 198K | 195K |
| ECB Main Refinancing Rate | 2.65% | 2.65% | 2.65% |
| Australia PPI (q/q) | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
What just happened
Overnight, the US economy grew 3.4% in the latest quarter — faster than the 3.2% economists expected. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.3% over the month, right in line with forecasts, and fewer Americans than expected claimed unemployment benefits. Shortly after midnight, the European Central Bank held its interest rate steady, as markets expected. President Christine Lagarde said some members had considered raising rates, and signalled that another rise in December remains possible. She also announced she will step down early, in February next year. Back home, Australia’s producer price index rose 1.1% over the September quarter, a touch above the 1.0% expected, adding to the inflation picture ahead of the RBA’s meeting.
Why it matters
A strong economy, sticky inflation and a tight jobs market all support the case for the US Federal Reserve to raise rates again in December, which markets now see as very likely. Higher US rates tend to support the US dollar. In Europe, the ECB sitting on its hands while a December move stays possible leaves the euro sensitive to every new piece of data.
What the Australian dollar is doing
With the US dollar supported and the euro under pressure, the Australian dollar has been caught in the crosses.
What’s coming up
All eyes now turn to the RBA’s interest rate decision on Tuesday 3 November at 2:30pm AEDT. After September’s hotter inflation figures, markets are pricing a rise to 4.85% as very likely, so a hold would be a surprise and could move the Australian dollar sharply. Before then, the Bank of Japan’s rate decision lands later today. If a result lands outside what’s expected, the Japanese yen, the US dollar or the euro can move quickly — and the Australian dollar can get caught in the move against all three.
| Upcoming release | Date & time | Expected | Previous | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Cash Rate decision (main focus) | Tue 3 Nov, 2:30pm AEDT (press conference 3:30pm) | Rise to 4.85% (around 85–90% priced) | 4.60% | – |
| BOJ Policy Rate | Fri 30 Oct (time tentative) | Below 1.25% (hold expected) | Below 1.25% | – |
Actual figures are added as each result is released.
This note is general market commentary, not financial advice, and doesn’t take into account your individual circumstances.
AUD/USD daily close, October 2026 (month to date, to Oct 29). Source: ECB daily reference rate (frankfurter.dev).